Summer Free Agency

It's been an active summer for other NBA teams, with the Lakers getting Steve Nash, the Heat getting Ray Allen, Deron Williams staying with the Nets, and the Knicks getting Jason Kidd while probably keeping Linsanity.  Not surprisingly, the Bulls have done little.  I have a long held theory that when the White Sox are doing well, they get first dibs on the money and the Bulls' reservoir dries up.  The Sox are doing well this year so no money for the Bulls unless they were miraculously on the verge of a championship.

With that in mind it is not surprising that the Bulls may well not resign Asik (the alternative is to over pay him), Brewer, Watson, Lucas, or Korver, and at the very least will certainly let some of those guys go.  And our big addition this summer?  The Bulls play the drum roll and present Kirk Hinrich!  Hmm, that name does sound familiar.  Oh yeah, that's the guy that the Bulls actually paid (in the form of both cash and a better draft pick) Washington to take off our hands the summer before last!

Well, you can't say the Bulls management isn't funny.  And there sort of were reasons for what they did.  In 2010 they were dumping salaries left and right with some insane hope of landing Lebron James.  I thought at the time that it was stupid to toss Hinrich away on a chance worse than a lottery ticket, rather than keep him around to teach Rose some defense, and in retrospect it clearly was a bad move, but they were dreaming big then.

And now, well, if they aren't going to spend any money, they may as well pick up someone who wants to be here (Hinrich never sold his house from his first stint) plays defense and has a good attitude.  I like Hinrich, even though I don't see him as a big upgrade from Watson.  So, I guess I actually give the move a thumb's up, even though I can't resist chiding them for it.

Really, the Bulls are in a holding pattern now, waiting both to see if Rose will recover and for the Sox to be bad again.  In their best case scenario, both of these take place next year.  In the following year (or possibly the one after that) the Bulls amnesty the hopeless Carlos Boozer and bring over a ready-for-NBA Nikola Mirotic, who has been progressing nicely in Europe.  And as long as I'm dreaming, we dump Deng before then and sign a tougher minded wing player coming into his prime and get a low post banger who will both score a little and play some defense without being insanely overpaid for just doing the former (like Mr. Boozer).

It's tough to have your hopes projected out a few years when this past season was setup for a championship.  They did have the best record in the league despite having more than their share of injuries during the year.  If Rose and Noah hadn't been injured in the playoffs I think the Bulls had the best chance to win it all, but it clearly wasn't to be.  And the worst part about it is that we may not have hit bottom yet.  Noah is out of the Olympics from that same injury so it is obviously far more serious than first thought.  And more players never recover from Rose's injury than fully make it back.  On the hopeful side he has youth and a good work ethic in his favor for recovery, but you can do everything right and win with the ACL.  (Two days ago we were treated to video of Rose limping into a Hollywood nightclub, so we know he doesn't have his dance moves back yet.)  However, no point in thinking about him never recovering and best to plan for a future with Rose again.  The alternative will look amazingly like the Bulls team that made the lottery the year before Rose was drafted.

Getting Ready for the Short Season

That was a nasty lockout, with plenty of bile remaining between both sides, but at least the NBA will play ball this year. And most fans will actually appreciate a shorter season. The short time between the end of the lockout and the start of play has accelerated the free agent signing period. So there's been plenty of moves (the biggest being Chris Paul to the Clippers) but I'm just going to focus on the Bulls here.

Of course the big move for the Bulls was resigning Scalabrine, luring him back from the Italian league, where he played the summer, along with ex-Purdue star E'Twuan Moore. OK, seriously, the big move for the Bulls was signing Rip Hamilton, who was waived by Detroit for salary and chemistry reasons. This means the Bulls probably won't resign their starting SG from last year, Keith Bogans.

I'm one of the few people in town who likes Bogans. He was one of the best defenders on an excellent defensive team and wasn't terrible offensively either. That said, Hamilton, even at his advanced age, should be a big offensive upgrade, and Ronnie Brewer will get the tough defensive 2 guard assignments. I'm thinking they will keep Korver for three point bench scoring, giving the Bulls a different type of three-headed monster for SG.

I've been a big fan of Hamilton since college. The guy is just a tough competitor who likes to win. I know he's been tagged as a coach killer after some well publicized incidents with Detroit, but I think a lot of that came as a consequence of the Pistons falling from an elite team to a bad one, and the Masked One living through both eras. I think he'll be fine in Chicago, once again on a winning team. Of course he is older and slower now, definitely not the great player he was a few years ago, but if he can be happy with the reduced minutes that will come from sharing a position with Brewer and Korver, he can be a huge addition.

The Bulls need that veteran savvy too, since they've also lost Kurt Thomas to the Blazers. Thomas was a great influence last year and hopefully Hamilton can be as well. For one thing, Hamilton, like Thomas, is excellent at drawing fouls, something Rose and Deng are just starting to pick up on. And you can't discount successful playoff experience and Hamilton certainly has plenty of that.

Coming into camp, Boozer is supposed to be lighter and in better shape, which is very good news indeed. Ditto for Asik's nasty leg injury not flaring up again over the summer while he played for Turkey. Noah was slowed by injury playing for France, but he seems to be fine now. Deng was basically England's entire offense (scary as that sounds) but seems none the worse for wear and tear. Rose didn't play anywhere this summer, but he's dedicated enough to work out. Taj has been mentioned in many a trade talk, but I'd be very happy to see him return. I expect CJ will return to backup Rose.

The Bulls might not be done dealing, but even if they stand pat, they had the best record last year, seem better at their weakest position, have another year with their brilliant coach, and seem to have healthier big guys. And still, everyone is picking the Heat, the Celtics, the Lakers, the Mavs, etc, to win this year. There may well be good reason for that too, but Bulls fans have a lot to be optimistic about going into the new season.

Post-Draft Reaction

No real surprises at the top of the draft. Cavs taking Tristan Thompson so early was a bit unexpected, but not unreasonable. Jimmer Fredette definitely went too early at 10, but he has hype and there are so few gunners to pick from. I was glad to see the two Purdue players go to Boston since it is a team I like.

The Bulls did exactly what I predicted/hoped with their first pick and got a solid foreign prospect in Nicola Mirotic. They gave up their second round pick to move up just five spots to get him though and I wouldn't call that great horse-trading. Plus, this guy just resigned his Real Madrid contract in April for five years, so it is very likely the Bulls don't see him for a minimum of four years, since they are unlikely to buyout more than one.

Still, he's only 20, the youngest player on his team, and has been playing professionally since he was 15. He started the year at the very end of Real Madrid's bench but improved so much that he became a key reserve and wound up winning the Euroleague Rising Star award, which is sort of equivalent to the NBA's ROY. If you look at the comments on his youtube videos, you'll see that Chicago fans are very unimpressed with him, but I'm extremely hopeful. He's getting minutes on one of the better European teams. If he doesn't get hurt, he could well be a prize by the time he gets to the NBA.

Four or five years is a heck of a long time to wait though! The Bulls just went deep into the playoffs, so we need help now. I think the Bulls realized that they weren't going to get much help in the draft with such bad picks so they decided to swing for the fences long-term. And judging by all the obscure young foreign players taken at the bottom of the second round, lots of other teams had the same idea.

With their last pick in the first round the Bulls wisely passed on Singler, who was available, but they took semi-local Marquette star Jimmy Butler. It's a pretty under-whelming pick, but I guess they thought that he has decent size, a good attitude, and might be able to improve into a three point shooter, although he certainly has a long way to go there. If he does, then it is the right pick, but that's a pretty big condition. As I said pre-draft, it's hard to find someone who can stay on your roster with the last pick in the first round. And if you are going to pay a guy to sit on your bench for three years, you at least want someone who works hard in practice. Maybe they though Butler's experience with being homeless as a child would prepare him for the NBA lockout?

I agree with the ESPN commentators who said that the Bulls had an eye towards free agency for their 2 guard need. I disagree with them in thinking that Jason Richardson is the best fit for them. I just can't see him or Vince Carter playing defense for Thibs. I'd prefer Nick Young or Richard Hamilton, but the Bulls just may be better off standing pat and hoping for improvement from their current trio of SGs. That may be their only option if the new collective bargaining agreement winds up removing their mid-level exception.

If this winds up being a lockout year then it will be brutal for rookies, as they won't get any training camp time. So, I guess if your going to have a year without any rookies in the rotation, then this would be it. The Bulls looking long term with their picks may well be their best choice.

Pre-Draft Thoughts

First, congrats to Dallas for beating the Miami blowhards and making just about everyone happy.

Now for the draft. The bad thing about having the best record in the league is that the Bulls get the last pick in the draft. They also have Miami's pick, but that isn't much better, nor is their second round pick that they got from Utah. So, that adds up to picks 28, 30, and 43, which is certainly nothing to get excited about going into a draft.

There's a lack of excitement even at the top of this draft though, and certainly no obvious impact player. Top three picks will almost certainly be Irving (Duke), Williams (Arizona), and Kanter (Kentucky/Turkey), most likely in that order. Reminds me a bit of the 07 draft when all the pundits had Durant going number two, but everyone said he was most likely to be the best pick (and both turned out to be true). Williams is no Durant, to be sure, but I don't think he's a Michael Beasley either, which is what all the naysayers see in him, an undersized 4 who should be, but never will be, an NBA 3. In 07 I said to pick Durant first and now I'm saying Williams is the best pick. Irving will be a solid point guard, a position that is very hot in the NBA right now (BTW, he was born in Australia and may wind up on their national team) and I think Kanter will be very good as well, but if the Cavs go with the prevailing winds and pick Irving, the Wolves should jump on Williams, trade Beasley, and see if a youth movement of Williams and last year's pick of Wes Johnson can work alongside K. Love.

Honestly though, if the Cavs were clever they take Williams (or even Kanter) and realize that with their next pick at number four they could get Brandon Knight, a PG who I don't see as a huge dropoff from Irving. Might not make a huge difference in the long run though since there are no slam dunks here. There is a bit of depth to this draft though and I guess that is good from the Bulls standpoint.

Forman has already stated that the Bulls will keep all three picks, which basically means that no one is interested in giving them anything in trade for such crummy picks. However, I cannot believe that the Bulls will carry three rookies on the roster next year, particularly two with guaranteed contracts. As a reminder to non-NBA geeks, the first round picks in the draft get a guaranteed three year contract, which the second round picks do not. Therefore, picks at the end of the first round are particularly dangerous. The Bulls have goofed up on even middle of the pack first round picks though, such as paying James Johnson to sit on the bench for three years. I know they don't want to do that again. (Ironically, they have that 28 pick from the Johnson trade.)

Therefore, if they can't trade one of those first round picks, the obvious choice is for them to pick a young foreign player and keep him overseas for a few years. The Spurs perfected this method years ago and the Bulls did it successfully recently with Asik. I fully expect them to try to do that again, and I'm all for it. If they can come up with someone as good as Asik it will be a great pick.

Now, what should they do for the other two? About a year ago I predicted that the Bulls would take Singler because they can't resist drafting a Duke player, and unfortunately I do think that Singler will be available when they are picking. He really hurt his stock by having a bad shooting year and I hope they pass on him because of that. Not that he's really a terrible choice at that point, it's just that I think they can do better. They could also take fellow Dukie Nolan Smith and I wouldn't be crazy about that choice either, but again, it isn't terrible. He's the son of Derek Smith, who was a high flyer on Louisville's 1980 championship game, and later in the NBA.

Unfortunately this draft is weakest in one of the Bulls most glaring needs: three point shooting. The Bulls are so desperate for outside shooting that they just worked out Adam Morrison for their summer team. Morrison, you may remember, was a huge bust from the 06 draft, taken number three because he was a great college shooter, but did nothing in the big league. Clearly, the Bulls won't get shooting help from the draft because I can't remember a draft so devoid of gunners.

So, they have to go with best available player, which is something Forman always says he will do anyway. I like the two Purdue options, Johnson and Moore, and not just because they are from one of my favorite college teams. They both play defense, have some offensive skills, and have good characters, although they both need to spend more time in the weight room. I also like Butler guard Shelvin Mack because I think he's a tough player and that goes pretty far in the NBA. I'm thinking of a guy like Reggie Evans who I thought would be a good pick when he came out of Iowa despite the fact that he has almost no basketball skills whatsoever besides being a tough rebounder. Now he's going into his 11th year in the league with basically that one skill.

Some other interesting options that could be around for the Bulls include UCLA's Tyler Honeycutt and Michigan's Darius Morris (not related to the Kansas Morris twins who will both be gone by the time the Bulls pick). Both are athletic and have some size at their positions. Travis Leslie is a very athletic guard from Georgia that the Bulls are said to be interested in. He's not a good outside shooter though, even by this draft's low standards. He may be worth a look at 43 though. Other people think the Bulls may take Richmond's Justin Harper or Florida's Chandler Parsons, two big guys who might be able to score a bit.

Not long after the draft the Bulls need to make a decision on whether to pick up their option on Keith Bogans. The consensus is that they will not since Bogans is, after Boozer, probably the most bashed player on the team. Most people want to let him go and I think would be a mistake. Everyone points to his minimal scoring ability, but they forget that he started for the Bulls because of his defense and he was a big reason why the Bulls were good defensively. I also think he's about as capable as anyone the Bulls will be able to draft to improve his 3 point shot. Like everyone else, I'd love to see the Bulls upgrade the 2 spot, but I just don't see an opportunity for that. I side with the tiny minority and vote to keep Bogans.

Fat Lady Warming Up

Now that it is basically all over for the Bulls except for the crying, let's look at how they got there and where they are going. In game two, the Bulls mysteriously didn't show up. Boozer was typically awful, but the overall energy level was missing. It was a tragic game to give away at home in a series where every game is tight.

Bulls did come with energy in game three, but unfortunately the Heat were too hot, most particularly Bosh, who was just hitting everything he put up. Some of those points were bad Boozer defense, but plenty of them were just Bosh hitting the jumper after Bulls bigs rotated off to double team James. This is the dream setup for Miami, because when Bosh can hit the jumper before the defense can rotate back onto him, it is nearly impossible to beat Miami. You have to give a lot of credit to James (Miami's clear MVP for this series) for being able to force a double team and then get Bosh the ball quickly.

Game four was a tragic overtime loss. Pretty much every Bull except for Boozer played hard on defense, but Rose was off his game offensively, much as he has been the entire series, and the Bulls just don't have enough scorers to cover for that. They had golden opportunities to win this one in regulation, but came up a bit short. Those crucial fourth quarter miscues have doomed them against a team that is just enough ahead of the Bulls offensively as the Bulls are against them on defense.

That fourth quarter also illustrates why I'm a confirmed Boozer basher, even for a game where he was OK offensively. At one point, Miller came charging wildly into the lane, dribbling almost out of control. Miller is not fast and Boozer had plenty of time to stop over and take a charge, but Boozer perpetually has his feet cemented to the floor on defense, so all he did was wave at him as he went by for a layup. A play later, he did the same thing to James, only fouling him for good measure to give the Heat a valuable three point play. Meanwhile, on the other end of the court, Haslem (the un-Boozer) slid over to take a huge charge. It was actually a dubious call, but the fact is that Haslem put himself in a position to get it and Boozer never does.

And that is the present and future of the Bulls, and a big part of the reason why it is a sad joke to give Forman co-executive of the year honors, ironically with Pat Riley. Much as I hate Miami's whinny Big Three, the Heat are in far better shape for the future than the Bulls. Our biggest free agent acquisition, Boozer, is an expensive albatross around our necks for years to come. He is basically untradeable and I have almost no hope for a Deng-like performance leap. And speaking of Deng, I think now is a great time to unload him while his stock is high! We have no answers at present for the fact that teams are going to get better at ganging up on Rose, much like Miami is doing, and the Bulls will struggle to find alternative scoring.

As a side-note, Asik's series ending injury is a bigger factor than most people realize. Even though he normally comes in for Noah, we now have to leave that to Taj, which means more Boozer in the second half than is good for us.

Still, Boozer doom and gloom aside, it was an excellent year for the Bulls. They did better than expected during the regular season and about as well as expected in the post. If Forman can somehow improve on that next year, then he'll earn the accolades that his mistakenly received this year.

Good Bulls Show Up

Game one started off scary for Bulls fans, with the Heat getting a few quick steals and dunks. Rose looked more like a careless Russell Westbrook than the steady MVP and the ball seemed to be bouncing Miami's way. But the Bulls quickly composed themselves, primarily through solid defense and hustle plays and were tied at half.

About midway through the third quarter the Bulls went on a quick spurt to change a small deficit into a ten point lead. Then they maintained that lead until late in the fourth, where they blew it open to seal the game. It is common to see a situation like that in NBA games. As the fourth quarter shrinks, teams down by ten or so start to take riskier shots, trying to get back in. They either make them and create a close game at the end or wind up losing by more. So, when you see headlines like "Bulls Crush Heat" keep in mind that this game was basically even the entire way except for that short burst in the third quarter and the pull-away at the end.

Still, that doesn't make it any less sweet. Clearly, this was the Bulls team from game six against Atlanta and not the fumbling goofballs that had so much trouble with the first two series. They played hard the entire way, particularly on defense and while rebounding. One could argue that the second chance opportunities that the Bulls got with offensive rebounds was the difference in the game. Outside of getting caught in the air on some fakes (and then fouling) the Bulls did a fabulous job on James and Wade. Bosh had a big scoring game, but I think a lot of those were due to excellent passing by James when the Bulls doubled up on him.

I basically started this blog to vent about the stupid things the Bulls seemed to be always doing. This year, I'm suddenly seeing them correcting just about everything I point out. A lot of credit for that has to go to Thibodeau. I complained about Deng's defense, toughness and shot selection for years and suddenly he improves on all three. More recently, I complained about court time for Boozer and now we have our second game with no Boozer in the fourth quarter. Mind you, he wasn't awful while he was in there, although he did get one of his infuriating defensive 3 second technicals.

Which brings me to The Tajinator (*nickname patent pending)!! Taj was a monster out there in game one! He gave us a poster jam over Wade for a three point play. He blocked James on a drive while guarding him one-on-one. And just to make the evening perfect for the fans, he had a highlight one-handed put-back jam near the end of the game. Truly, if you didn't see that last one, go to youtube right now, search and be amazed.

Miami is vulnerable in the frontcourt, particularly with Big Z and Haslem nursing injuries, so having our bigs play well is one of the keys to the series. Noah was all intensity and motion. Taj was amazing. Asik was very solid, not fouling as much, as he is prone to do. Boozer was still stupid, but he did a lot of things right as well, such as rebounding. He had a couple baskets directly off of offensive rebounds and this is something we have too rarely seen from him.

One thing Miami tries to do in order to offset this weakness is to go small and force a Bulls big man to come out on a three point shooter. This worked a bit for them, with Jones knocking down some three point shots over slowly closing Bulls bigs. But the Bulls adjusted their rotation to minimize this and I think more than made up for it with the rebounding advantage. This is going to be a mini-battle throughout the series as both teams make adjustments to take advantage of mismatches.

It's a great start for the Bulls but I can't help thinking that the Bulls must win their home games in order to take this series. We've seen this team lose focus during the previous two series. It is best to keep Miami on their heels. Once they get their cocky swagger back then they play the way they opened game one and the Bulls will have big trouble with that. Bulls need to use their depth to keep up defensive pressure at all times. If I were Miami's coach, I'd tell James and Wade to drive more, looking for fouls, kickouts for open threes, or easy baskets. The Bulls need to be ready for that.

Finishing off the Hawks

To finish recapping the Atlanta series, Rose was completely unstoppable in game three, turning in a 44 point performance that would justify any MVP votes cast for him. Bulls came out amazingly flat in game four, but hung close until midway into the fourth quarter before collapsing completely. Boozer was horrific but all the Bulls looked like they were just expecting Rose to rescue them at the end. Thibs gave us some inspired coaching in game five, benching Boozer, and less importantly Noah for the entire fourth quarter. Asik, and more importantly Taj, came up big when their numbers were called.

And there was carry over into game six as well, since both Boozer and Noah started the game off very energetically. Boozer actually slightly resembled the offensive player the Bulls thought they were going to get, and he wasn't quite as completely pathetic on defense as usual. Overall, this was probably the most impressive game of the playoffs for the Bulls as just about everyone played well. Rose only had 19 points in this game, far below the 30 to 40 he'd been getting, but he had 12 assists. It was the first playoff game where the Bulls looked like they would have a chance of beating the Heat in the next round.

Speaking of which, this next round will be quite the challenge. I know the Bulls have home court advantage and had good success against Miami during the regular season, but it is no surprise that the betting odds favor Miami. Even at home the Bulls are 4.5 point underdogs. Miami is playing quite well in the playoffs and the Bulls have struggled more often than not. If the Bulls play like they did in game six, then they can win against anyone, but they will come up short if their play remains inconsistent.