Monday, April 25, 2011

Trouble With the Eight Seed

Pretty much no one expected the Bulls to have so much trouble with Indiana. I certainly did not, but I'm not at all surprised at the ways in which they are struggling. First off, I'll say that Indiana deserves a lot of credit by playing as hard as they possibly can and not being intimidated by the team with the best regular season record. But the Bulls have themselves to blame for not having an easy first round series.

Carlos Boozer, my biggest concern going into the playoffs, is reason number one for the Bulls' troubles. He's been absolutely horrible in this series, completely outplayed by Indiana no-names like Tyler Hansbrough. Deng, the other Bull I'm always worried about, hasn't been great either, but nowhere near as awful as Boozer. Rose has been excellent, but often not his usual superior self. He has too many turnovers, is missing a lot of outside shots, and seems uncomfortable with the Pacers double teams. Brewer seems bothered by the thumb injury he received in that last, meaningless regular season game. Really, only Noah has shined, along with Korver hitting some clutch shots at the end of games.

Now Rose has a tweaked ankle and Indiana has the confidence of knowing that they've have played the Bulls even for four games despite being down 3-1. I'm thinking the Bulls should still be able to close them out at home, but they need the right their ship quickly before moving on to face more talented opponents.

Fortunately, Orlando is struggling, to the point where they might not make it past Atlanta. Atlanta is a team the Bulls have difficulty against anyway, so they will need to improve in any case, but at least they will face a team with some flaws next round.

I'm at the point now with Boozer where I'm actually happy when he picks up his second stupid foul in the first quarter and has to go to the bench. I think that if he's off, which he has been for most games in recent memory, then the Bulls should be giving more time to Thomas and Gibson. I know it is hard to bench a guy whom the Bulls have invested so much money and hope, but the playoffs are no place to leave a guy in who keeps screwing up.

Friday, April 8, 2011

In the Driver's Seat

Bulls got the big win they needed over Boston to put them in excellent position for the one seed in the East. Even more reassuring is that the two guys I'm most worried about in big games, namely Deng and Boozer, both played pretty well. And our three-headed SG monster has worked out OK lately as well. Bogans has given them good defense and is finally hitting some threes. Korver gives them a streak shooter off the bench. And Brewer has been great with steals, energy plays, and for his patented sneak-up along the baseline backdoor trick.

And to top it off, Rose is looking like a lock for MVP. One of his main competitors, Dwight Howard, just gave the Bulls a break by getting yet another technical for griping, and getting suspended for their upcoming game against the Bulls. Barring a collapse, the one seed is in the bag. That means Indiana first round and most likely Orlando for round two, with the winner of Boston vs Miami in the conference finals. If the Bulls had sat down at the beginning of the season and wrote down the most favorable scenario for them come playoff time, it would look very much like the position they are now in.

Let's rewind two years and remember that great playoff series the Bulls had against the Celtics. In that game seven, Ben Gordan had 33 points and Rose had 18. Celtics shot the ball better and were clearly superior at moving the ball around. Over that seven game series, Rose vs Rondo was close to a wash, with perhaps even a tiny advantage to Rondo. At the time, I said that the Bulls would have won if they had an upgrade over Tyrus Thomas at the four.

Now, Rondo is a bit better, but Rose is a whole lot better. We don't have a scoring SG like Gordon, but we have lots of good role players and a much better bench. Instead of Tyrus, we have Boozer and Thomas. We didn't have Deng for that series but that was probably an advantage. This year he's actually an asset. And the rest of the Celtics are about the same as before, just two years older.

Of course the playoffs are more than just being better than the Celtics, but the Bulls have shown that they can beat anyone this year in a series. And this just may be their best chance for a bit. They are going in with perfect seeding and are relatively injury-free. Next year, the NBA will most likely see a lockout. Superstar teams like Miami and New York may start to hit their stride. Plenty could start to go wrong, so even though the Bulls are relatively young, the future is now.