Post-Draft Reaction

No real surprises at the top of the draft. Cavs taking Tristan Thompson so early was a bit unexpected, but not unreasonable. Jimmer Fredette definitely went too early at 10, but he has hype and there are so few gunners to pick from. I was glad to see the two Purdue players go to Boston since it is a team I like.

The Bulls did exactly what I predicted/hoped with their first pick and got a solid foreign prospect in Nicola Mirotic. They gave up their second round pick to move up just five spots to get him though and I wouldn't call that great horse-trading. Plus, this guy just resigned his Real Madrid contract in April for five years, so it is very likely the Bulls don't see him for a minimum of four years, since they are unlikely to buyout more than one.

Still, he's only 20, the youngest player on his team, and has been playing professionally since he was 15. He started the year at the very end of Real Madrid's bench but improved so much that he became a key reserve and wound up winning the Euroleague Rising Star award, which is sort of equivalent to the NBA's ROY. If you look at the comments on his youtube videos, you'll see that Chicago fans are very unimpressed with him, but I'm extremely hopeful. He's getting minutes on one of the better European teams. If he doesn't get hurt, he could well be a prize by the time he gets to the NBA.

Four or five years is a heck of a long time to wait though! The Bulls just went deep into the playoffs, so we need help now. I think the Bulls realized that they weren't going to get much help in the draft with such bad picks so they decided to swing for the fences long-term. And judging by all the obscure young foreign players taken at the bottom of the second round, lots of other teams had the same idea.

With their last pick in the first round the Bulls wisely passed on Singler, who was available, but they took semi-local Marquette star Jimmy Butler. It's a pretty under-whelming pick, but I guess they thought that he has decent size, a good attitude, and might be able to improve into a three point shooter, although he certainly has a long way to go there. If he does, then it is the right pick, but that's a pretty big condition. As I said pre-draft, it's hard to find someone who can stay on your roster with the last pick in the first round. And if you are going to pay a guy to sit on your bench for three years, you at least want someone who works hard in practice. Maybe they though Butler's experience with being homeless as a child would prepare him for the NBA lockout?

I agree with the ESPN commentators who said that the Bulls had an eye towards free agency for their 2 guard need. I disagree with them in thinking that Jason Richardson is the best fit for them. I just can't see him or Vince Carter playing defense for Thibs. I'd prefer Nick Young or Richard Hamilton, but the Bulls just may be better off standing pat and hoping for improvement from their current trio of SGs. That may be their only option if the new collective bargaining agreement winds up removing their mid-level exception.

If this winds up being a lockout year then it will be brutal for rookies, as they won't get any training camp time. So, I guess if your going to have a year without any rookies in the rotation, then this would be it. The Bulls looking long term with their picks may well be their best choice.

Pre-Draft Thoughts

First, congrats to Dallas for beating the Miami blowhards and making just about everyone happy.

Now for the draft. The bad thing about having the best record in the league is that the Bulls get the last pick in the draft. They also have Miami's pick, but that isn't much better, nor is their second round pick that they got from Utah. So, that adds up to picks 28, 30, and 43, which is certainly nothing to get excited about going into a draft.

There's a lack of excitement even at the top of this draft though, and certainly no obvious impact player. Top three picks will almost certainly be Irving (Duke), Williams (Arizona), and Kanter (Kentucky/Turkey), most likely in that order. Reminds me a bit of the 07 draft when all the pundits had Durant going number two, but everyone said he was most likely to be the best pick (and both turned out to be true). Williams is no Durant, to be sure, but I don't think he's a Michael Beasley either, which is what all the naysayers see in him, an undersized 4 who should be, but never will be, an NBA 3. In 07 I said to pick Durant first and now I'm saying Williams is the best pick. Irving will be a solid point guard, a position that is very hot in the NBA right now (BTW, he was born in Australia and may wind up on their national team) and I think Kanter will be very good as well, but if the Cavs go with the prevailing winds and pick Irving, the Wolves should jump on Williams, trade Beasley, and see if a youth movement of Williams and last year's pick of Wes Johnson can work alongside K. Love.

Honestly though, if the Cavs were clever they take Williams (or even Kanter) and realize that with their next pick at number four they could get Brandon Knight, a PG who I don't see as a huge dropoff from Irving. Might not make a huge difference in the long run though since there are no slam dunks here. There is a bit of depth to this draft though and I guess that is good from the Bulls standpoint.

Forman has already stated that the Bulls will keep all three picks, which basically means that no one is interested in giving them anything in trade for such crummy picks. However, I cannot believe that the Bulls will carry three rookies on the roster next year, particularly two with guaranteed contracts. As a reminder to non-NBA geeks, the first round picks in the draft get a guaranteed three year contract, which the second round picks do not. Therefore, picks at the end of the first round are particularly dangerous. The Bulls have goofed up on even middle of the pack first round picks though, such as paying James Johnson to sit on the bench for three years. I know they don't want to do that again. (Ironically, they have that 28 pick from the Johnson trade.)

Therefore, if they can't trade one of those first round picks, the obvious choice is for them to pick a young foreign player and keep him overseas for a few years. The Spurs perfected this method years ago and the Bulls did it successfully recently with Asik. I fully expect them to try to do that again, and I'm all for it. If they can come up with someone as good as Asik it will be a great pick.

Now, what should they do for the other two? About a year ago I predicted that the Bulls would take Singler because they can't resist drafting a Duke player, and unfortunately I do think that Singler will be available when they are picking. He really hurt his stock by having a bad shooting year and I hope they pass on him because of that. Not that he's really a terrible choice at that point, it's just that I think they can do better. They could also take fellow Dukie Nolan Smith and I wouldn't be crazy about that choice either, but again, it isn't terrible. He's the son of Derek Smith, who was a high flyer on Louisville's 1980 championship game, and later in the NBA.

Unfortunately this draft is weakest in one of the Bulls most glaring needs: three point shooting. The Bulls are so desperate for outside shooting that they just worked out Adam Morrison for their summer team. Morrison, you may remember, was a huge bust from the 06 draft, taken number three because he was a great college shooter, but did nothing in the big league. Clearly, the Bulls won't get shooting help from the draft because I can't remember a draft so devoid of gunners.

So, they have to go with best available player, which is something Forman always says he will do anyway. I like the two Purdue options, Johnson and Moore, and not just because they are from one of my favorite college teams. They both play defense, have some offensive skills, and have good characters, although they both need to spend more time in the weight room. I also like Butler guard Shelvin Mack because I think he's a tough player and that goes pretty far in the NBA. I'm thinking of a guy like Reggie Evans who I thought would be a good pick when he came out of Iowa despite the fact that he has almost no basketball skills whatsoever besides being a tough rebounder. Now he's going into his 11th year in the league with basically that one skill.

Some other interesting options that could be around for the Bulls include UCLA's Tyler Honeycutt and Michigan's Darius Morris (not related to the Kansas Morris twins who will both be gone by the time the Bulls pick). Both are athletic and have some size at their positions. Travis Leslie is a very athletic guard from Georgia that the Bulls are said to be interested in. He's not a good outside shooter though, even by this draft's low standards. He may be worth a look at 43 though. Other people think the Bulls may take Richmond's Justin Harper or Florida's Chandler Parsons, two big guys who might be able to score a bit.

Not long after the draft the Bulls need to make a decision on whether to pick up their option on Keith Bogans. The consensus is that they will not since Bogans is, after Boozer, probably the most bashed player on the team. Most people want to let him go and I think would be a mistake. Everyone points to his minimal scoring ability, but they forget that he started for the Bulls because of his defense and he was a big reason why the Bulls were good defensively. I also think he's about as capable as anyone the Bulls will be able to draft to improve his 3 point shot. Like everyone else, I'd love to see the Bulls upgrade the 2 spot, but I just don't see an opportunity for that. I side with the tiny minority and vote to keep Bogans.