Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Battling Bulls

Just had to steal that title from the Sun Times front page story about the scuffle between Del Negro and Paxson. But before I get into that, let's check in on the Bulls playoff battle. As I wrote last time, Bosh's injury left the playoff door wide open for the Bulls to limp through, and limp they are. After beating their wretched-looking competition, the Raptors, and getting playoff destiny in their own hands, they then tried their utmost to toss it away with a woeful double-overtime loss to the lowly Nets. That loss meant that the Bulls lost a season series (2-1) against one of the worst teams in basketball history. Fortunately, Toronto also lost, so the Bulls were still a half game ahead.

With Toronto owning the head-to-head tiebreaker and having two easy games left on their schedule, that meant that the Bulls would basically have to win their last two games to get into the playoffs. First up for them was Boston at home and the Bulls backcourt suddenly exploded offensively. Rose had 39 and Heinrich had 30, both season highs! No other Bulls scored in double figures, but they didn't need to! The Bulls stepped up big time amidst a mega-distraction and now only need to beat Charlotte tonight to make the 8th spot.

OK, now for the good stuff. Yahoo (stealing from the Sun Times reporter) said that Paxson tried to pick a fight with Del Negro after the Phoenix game over Vinny's extending Noah's minutes beyond his orders. Another source said that Del Negro wasn't so passive as the Yahoo story suggested and that the two had almost comes to blows before. My take on this is that we need to let these two duke it out! Charles Barkley picked Vinny over Paxson (although he first stated that neither one could fight) and I'm not going to argue with Charles. Maybe it is just wishful thinking because I'd love to see someone punch Paxson in the face.

Seriously though, if this is enough to tear Reinsdorf away from watching baseball games long enough to make a front office change, I'd say it is a blessing in disguise. Both Paxson and Forman need to go! How many years of ineptitude can the Bulls fans stand? (We're not talking about Cubs fans here.) As for Vinny, he's had two years and done about as well as one would expect given the team's talent. Obviously if they lose tonight, or even if they win and Reinsdorf once again sides with Pax, Vinny is going to get fired as soon as the season ends. While he isn't the greatest coach in the world, he almost certainly doesn't deserve that.

Interestingly, the word is that Vinny tried to get permission from Paxson (and remember that this is post scuffle) to extend Noah's minutes during that awful Nets overtime game. Paxson gave the OK, but Vinny didn't get the message until it was too late. That certainly must have angered both of them.

First up is Charlotte away though. A lot may hinge on whether Larry Brown wants to rest his guys before the playoffs or not. The Bobcats have somewhat surprisingly locked up the 7th spot and cannot move up, only because they would lose a tie-breaker with the Bucks, who are a game in front. There's no doubt the networks would much prefer the Bulls over a Bosh-less Toronto. Let the conspiracies begin!

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

The Playoff Push

When a team is borderline playoffs, do you hope they miss out and get into the draft lottery, or do you cheer for the inevitable first round exit? I used to favor the lottery, but in the Bulls' case you clearly have to hope for the playoffs. First, because the Bulls generally haven't drafted well, and second because the playoff experience is important to developing a winning team.

And, on a night when John Salmons rubbed 26 points in the noses of Bulls management for trading him to the Bucks, clinching a playoff spot for them, and ex-Bulls coach Scott Skiles, the Bulls got a huge break in their playoff hunt. Toronto, who is currently a game ahead of the Bulls for the last playoff spot, lost Chris Bosh to a broken facial bone. It is unclear how long he'll be out but there are only five games left for them. What makes this scenario even more interesting is that Bosh is one of the main targets for the Bulls in next summer's free agent signings, so it's a double competition between the Bulls and the Raptors.

The fact that the Bulls lost an important game at home to a Milwaukee team who was missing Andrew Bogut to injury proves that they clearly don't actually deserve to make the playoffs. They are a leaderless team. Their best player, Rose, is notoriously reticent. Their highest paid player, Deng, is continually slammed for his lack of leadership ability, most stingingly by former Duke alumni and ex-Bull Jay Williams: "I've never really seen Lu lead. I didn't see him lead when he was in college, and I haven't really seen him lead as a pro. I always see him kind of fitting in, following the flow." Yep, that's Luol in a nutshell, sleepily "following the flow" and getting out of the way of any stiff competition. And when was the last time you saw a team waive one of their captains, as the Bulls did this year to Lindsey Hunter?

Their only hope is to import skilled leadership through free agency while continuing to develop their young core talents: Rose, Noah, and Gibson, and that means a playoff stint, even with the inevitable defeat. On the one hand it looks like the Bulls have gone backwards this year, since they easily made the playoffs last year and gave Boston a great fight. However, they are better poised financially to pick up free agents, Rose and Noah have another year under their belts, and we have Taj instead of Tyrus. So, I think they could wind up in a potentially better position, provided they finish strong and avoid the bitter disappointment of missing the playoffs when the door is wide open for them to crawl in.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Punting on their Mistakes at the End of the Trade Deadline

Before the trading frenzy, the Bulls played a rare home/away back-to-back against the Knicks. I had the good fortune to attend the game at the United Center in a very nice halfcourt box. I always enjoy watching the Bulls beat up on one of the few teams consistently more hapless than they are.

Of course the real action between the Bulls and Knicks wasn't on the court, but in that huge T-Mac expiring contract competition. There was some surprising drama here as that coveted T-Mac contract first went to Sacramento from Houston, basically for Kevin Martin. But now it is looking like the Kings will now swap it to the Knicks. They paid a pretty steep price for it though. The Rockets get their draft pick two years from now and have the option to swap picks with them next year. So, the Knicks are gambling big time on getting prime free agents next year, but it is still probably a good move for them.

As mentioned previously, I wanted the Bulls to take this same tactic. They didn't get T-Mac, but they weren't completely idle either. They jettisoned Salmons to the Bucks for expiring contracts, and Thomas (!!!) to the Bobcats for expiring contracts and a protected draft pick. Looking at the glass half empty, tossing away Salmons is proof that their big trade last year was a failure; we didn't get much for Tyrus; and the Bulls didn't get rid of those bloated contracts of Hinrich and Deng, which will be a burden when free agent shopping next year. Also on the pessimistic side is the fact that the Cavs made a great trade in grabbing Jamison from the Wiz, making them the favorites for the title, which would drastically reduce the chances of LeBron bolting for free agency next year.

But let's also examine the glass half full position. First off -- Tyrus is gone!! I don't care that we're basically trading a former number two draft pick for what will be a non-lottery pick. He's gone and that's a good move! Next, tossing away Salmons was no easy task because he, like Deng and Hinrich, makes far more than he is worth, and in this current cash strapped NBA no team likes to take on salaries for under-achievers. The Bulls got lucky because the Bucks are in a rare playoff hunt and they've lost their shooting guard (Redd) to injury. They need someone like Salmons if they want to go to the playoffs, so they were inclined to pay for him.

One might question the wisdom of the Bulls sending players to two of the teams who are competing with them for a playoff spot, but the answer to that is simple -- the Bulls are bailing on this year, as they should. The big danger is that the locker room gets a poisoned attitude towards management waving the white flag. However, the Bulls still have a very good chance to make the playoffs, even with these trades. They did get Warrick and Alexander back for Salmons, and Murray and Law back for Tyrus. Of these four, I only expect Warrick and Murray to play, and while they certainly aren't great players, they should provide enough bodies for the Bulls to limp into their inevitable first round playoff loss.

Can't help pointing out that for two years running, Amare Stoudemire was most involved in trade deadline rumors, and yet he remains a Sun. Last year he got injured right after the trade deadline, so I'm expecting history to repeat itself.

Monday, February 8, 2010

Tyrus Packs His $%^ing Bags

One of my two least favorite Bulls is about to be an ex-Bull. During the Atlanta game, Tyrus Thomas lost what infinitesimal amount of composure he has and launched a profanity tirade at Vinny. Note to Tyrus -- swearing at your head coach during a game is not the best way to increase your playing time. Vinny had little choice but to suspend him for one game (which they won).

So now Tyrus is almost assured to be an ex-Bull before too long. It's no secret that the Bulls have been trying to trade him for quite some time and have not gotten much in the way of offers. This recent incident will only lessen his already low trade value. But at least he will go! If they can't trade him, I expect they will simply release him.

Let's flashback to the 2006 draft for a laugh. Bulls had the second pick, and I, along with almost everyone else on the planet, expected them to pick LaMarcus Aldridge. I was tempted by Brandon Roy and Rudy Gay, who in retrospect look like the best picks in that draft, but I was settled on Aldridge. And so, when the Bulls picked Aldridge, I was satisfied. But then they immediately swapped with Portland, who took Tyrus Thomas with the next pick. At first I had flashbacks to the awful draft-day Elton Brand for Tyson Chandler swap, but I was hoping that the Bulls had done their homework this time and really got the athletic stud they claimed they had in Tyrus.

It very soon became very apparent that the Bulls most definitely did not do their homework. Yes, Tyrus is an athletic marvel, but he's also a hyper-emotional idiot who is completely devoid of both common sense and basketball talent. Meanwhile, Aldridge, after an excellent rookie season, has proven to be the outstanding front court player the Bulls so very desperately need.

As far as dumping Tyrus in a trade, I expect the Bulls only chance it to include him as a package deal with a good player, such as Hinrich. Lots of rumors have these two going to Boston for Ray Allen and his large expiring contract. If the Bulls could somehow manage to include Tyrus with Deng, that would be my dream trade! I'm also all for the plan of dumping players for expiring contracts and targeting either Dwayne Wade or Joe Johnson in free agency next year.

Bulls seem to have stepped back over that thin line between winning and losing and are back to their usual fourth quarter collapse script. It doesn't help that Noah is hurt. All-Star break is a perfect opportunity to trade and heal.

Monday, February 1, 2010

The Fine Line Between Winning and Losing

Bulls played very well for three quarters versus New Orleans, and then started their usual fourth quarter collapse. They lost the lead, but they didn't completely fold. They played just well enough to stay within striking distance. And then they caught a huge break.

With seconds remaining and the Bulls down by two without the Ball, New Orleans inbounded from the backcourt with the Bulls furiously pressing. They tried to toss it up to Paul in the frontcourt, but the pass was led too far and Paul bravely tried to save it inbounds by diving into the crowd, injuring himself in the process. He did save it, but the Bulls got it back. Bulls raced down court, and Rose got a short, contested shot, which missed, but Deng had an easy put-back at the buzzer.

Paul tried to play in overtime, but it was clear that he was injured and had to leave (and now it looks like he will be out over a month). New Orleans still had a chance to win at the end of OT, but backup point guard Collison ended the game with a turnover. A lucky win for the Bulls, but the point is that they put themselves in position to catch a break, and they weren't doing that a few weeks ago.

Basically, they are shooting better and playing a bit better defense. Also, they are making a few less mistakes. Not drastic changes mind you, but just enough to turn them into a team that wins slightly more games than they lose.

Rose makes the All-Star team. A month ago, I wouldn't have voted for him, but he has definitely played well enough to be an All-Star during the last month. He's looking for his shot more and hitting it. He's still weak on defense, but Vinny has been wise about giving Hinrich the tougher guard to defend, so Rose has not looked bad there. During the New Orleans game, they flashed a graphic to have people vote for which point guard they would prefer to anchor their franchise -- Rose or Paul. I would still opt for Paul, even though Rose has outplayed him during the past month and I believe he will still improve. Rose is a better athlete, but Paul is smarter and that is more valuable. I'm still overjoyed to have an All-Star point guard on the Bulls though!

Monday, January 25, 2010

A Mini-Streak and a Trade and Some Rumors

After an excellent game against Boston, the Bulls played some of their most pathetic ball of the year versus Golden State and the Clippers. Then the Bulls put together a pair of solid outings against Phoenix and Houston. They are becoming one of the most unpredictable teams in the league. I guess that beats being clearly one of the worst.

Bulls pull off a trade, but nothing to raise anyone's pulse: Aaron Gray for Devin Brown. You hate to see them trade big for small when they so clearly need front court help, but Gray isn't going to crack into the rotation. He's been a disappointment after a promising start during his rookie year. Bulls are desperate for some 3-point shooting and are hoping Brown can improve that a bit. He's not going to make much of an impact though.

Once again we have a multitude of Amare Stoudemire trade rumors just before the deadline. If you remember from last year, the Suns neglected to pull the trigger on a bunch of Amare trade offers, and then had Amare get injured a day after the trade deadline. So now, we have basically the same rumors as last year. On the Bulls side, that would be Tyrus and Deng for Amare.

Now, you'd think that I would be jumping up and down for a chance to trade away my two least favorite Bulls, but I'm actually only lukewarm to this deal. Both Tyrus and Deng have played better than last year, and Amare is a bit worse. Plus, Amare is still injury prone and a bad defender. That isn't to say I still wouldn't pull the trigger because I just couldn't resist getting rid of Tyrus and Deng, but I don't think Amare is that great a prize. The Suns really made a huge mistake by not trading him last year. I've said it before and will likely say it again: I loved Paxson and Kerr as players and think they are both intelligent guys, but they are both terrible in the front office.

Here's a trade rumor I like a lot more -- Al Jefferson of the Wolves for either Deng or Tyrus plus change. Jefferson has more of an offensive post presence and that is something that has been lacking in the Bulls game for quite some time.

Hinrich is most definitely on the block to get rid of his contract, but I hope the Bulls don't give him away. He's been playing rather well lately. Boston is a team that would love to snatch him away without giving up much. I don't mind including him in a good deal though. I still vote yes to swapping him for Caron Butler.

Right now the Bulls are two games under .500, yet still in the 8th spot in the East, with a reasonable chance of rising all the way up to the 5th seed. And yet they have no chance of winning the championship. So, are they content with a first or second round playoff exit (at best!) or do they start getting themselves in position to be better for next year?

Thursday, January 14, 2010

T-Mac Rumors

First off, don't let the last two wins over Minnesota and Detroit fool you. The Bulls still stink. Those teams just stink more.

Trading deadline is about a month off, so that means the rumors will fly fast and furious for the next few weeks. First up is T-Mac who is disgruntled in Houston and is actually in Chicago working out with Tim Grover. And BTW, why don't the Bulls just hire Tim Grover to run their practices? Probably can't afford him.

The Bulls are interested in T-Mac, probably more for his huge expiring contract than for his time on the floor. They've already said that they won't give up Noah for that and I agree with them. Noah has perhaps played the most consistently well of any of the Bulls this year. A bit more than a year ago I predicted that he would be leaps and bounds ahead of Tyrus and he's proven me correct. So, no Noah for McGrady.

Now how about Salmons, Miller, Jones and change for T-Mac? Now that is a tough call. There's no question that T-Mac is extremely talented. The two big knocks against him is that he is injury prone and he has a bad (lazy/indifferent) attitude. You might also add in that he is vastly overpaid, but if you are looking for an expiring contract then that may actually be a positive.

Salmons has taken a huge step backwards this year. Miller is getting older, and no one will miss Jones or anyone else they toss in. So, here's what it comes down to. Is Salmons going to recover and start playing as well as he did during the latter part of last year? And would T-Mac come into Chicago with an improved attitude and a reasonably healthy body?

It's a close call. I think that if the Bulls want to go the T-Mac/expiring contract route, then they must also find a way to dump Deng, Tyrus, and probably Hinrich (contract) as well. If they can do that then I have no problem blowing up this team and building around Rose, Noah and whatever big free agents they can sign.

However, if they can't do that, then adding another lazy, indifferent player to this team is not a good idea. Could you imagine T-Mac, Deng, Tyrus and Rose on the court at the same time? Teams would average 125 points a game against them as they all sulked down the court when it was time to pretend to play defense.